Gold Price Spikes to 6 Month High at Start of Year

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The spot gold price futures hit a six month high at the start of the year.

Rising expectations of a recession and a general decline in stocks and crypto have led to growing demand from central banks and investors.

Analysts from CNBC are anticipating precious metals price will rise, calling this year the “new secular bull market.”

Central banks bought record numbers of gold in the final quarter of 2022. Led by China reporting purchases of more than 300 tons of gold bars.

CNBC analyst Juerg Kiener, managing director and chief investment officer at Swiss Asia Capital, said last month that the current market conditions mirror those of 2001 and 2008.

“It is not going to be just 10 or 20%, I think I’m looking at a move which will really make new highs”.

Using data available from CME Group, analysts from FX Street see rising interest in the futures markets. The number of open interests in gold futures rose by more than 8k contracts for the third day in a row.

Miners are expecting bullish returns in 2023 as they expect the gold prices to catch up with inflation.

The Fed’s decision to hike interest rates higher and more frequently and in such reactionary manner despite experts predicting dire consequences.

Long time gold bug, Robert Kiyosaki is predicting that gold prices can reach $3,800 an ounce this year.

He’s also bullish on other metals, predicting that we will see silver prices will rise to $75 per ounce this year in a recent Tweet.

Dealer premiums on 1 oz gold bars have drop to as low as 2% in recent weeks.

Now is a great time for retail precious metals investors. Premiums on 100 oz silver bars have recently dropped as low as $1.49 per ounce over spot. This is similar to the premiums when shopping from online bullion dealers prior to the pandemic.

The FOMC committee is meeting. Powell’s remarks following the meeting in December indicate that the Fed is going to continue rate hikes this year, albeit at a slower pace. Today’s announcement is expected after 2:00.

Update:

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) is responsible for managing the key interest rates that drive the economy.

In December the Fed announced their decision to continue the aggressive rate hikes.

The meeting minutes that were released today provide some guidance on the Fed’s plans for 2023.

The Fed is expected to continue to raise interest rates this year as it attempt to reduce the rate of inflation towards a target of 2%. Albeit with smaller incremental increases.

Recent CPI data shows that prices suggests that inflation has slows to around 7.1%, down slightly from 7.7%.

Yet, egg prices have climbed more than 49% in recent months. Some videos circulating on social media show egg prices in some NYC stores approaching $10 per dozen.

It’s expected that prices of basic essentials are expected to continue to rise as the impact of the rate hikes start to ripple across the economy.

Spot gold price held onto some earlier gains, silver prices are down slightly on the news.

Federal Open Market Committee 2023 Agenda

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The Federal Open Market Committee is the part of the Federal Reserve that is responsible for managing open market operations.

The FOMC uses the three primary tools to influence the direction of the economy.

The Federal Reserve influences the demand for, and supply of, balances that depository institutions hold at Federal Reserve Banks.

This gives them control of the federal funds rate. The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions (banks) lend balances at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions (banks) overnight.

Changes in the federal funds rate trigger a chain of events that affect many other market factors. Those factors include short-term interest rates, foreign exchange rates, long-term interest rates, the amount of money and credit, and, ultimately, a range of economic variables, including employment, output, and prices of goods and services.

The FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings per year.

At these meetings, the Committee reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy, and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth.

2023 FOMC Scheduled Meetings

These are the scheduled meeting dates for the FOMC in 2023.

  • January 31-February 1
  • March 21-22*
  • May 2-3
  • June 13-14*
  • July 25-26
  • September 19-20*
  • October 31-November 1
  • December 12-13*


* Meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections.