Visualizing the Commercial Real Estate Crisis

FindBullionPrices.com

In his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told Senators that there will be bank failures resulting from the commercial real estate crisis.

Recently, the folks at Visual Capitalist brought to life a report published by UBS Bank in February 2024 that shows a breakdown that shows which of the country’s banks have the greatest exposure in the commercial real estate sector.

It should be no surprise that the nation’s largest bank, JP Morgan Chase, sits at the top of the list with over $171 billion in commercial real estate loans, roughly 12.6% of their total loans and leases.

New York Community Bank (NYCB), the most recent bank to fail, reportedly held 57% commercial real estate loans.

There are some mid-size banks that are holding a significant share of commercial mortgages, which may be the ones Powell was referring to in his testimony to Congress.

In recent years, Well Fargo has paid more than $3.7 billion in fines in recent years for illegally creating new accounts for customers and other violations. Wells Fargo is holding around 21% of their loan portfolio in CRE.

New Catalyst $10 bill expected in 2026

FindBullionPrices.com

It’s been more than ten years since then US Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew announced a new project to redesign the nations currency, beginning with the $10 note.

At the time of the announcement, the designs for the new $10 bills were expected to be released in 2020 to correlate with the 100th anniversary of 19th Amendment, which granted women the right to vote.

For a while, the proposals were circulating in the media that a woman would be featured in the design. However, it was announced in 2016 that Alexander Hamilton would continue to appear on the $10 bill, due in part to his sudden resurgence in popularity due to the Broadway musical. That led to discussions of potentially Harriet Tubman being featured on the $20 note, but that movement seems to be flailing at the moment and the replacement for that is not expected until 2030.

While millions in taxpayer funds has been spent on research and development of new security features, along with the implementation of new intaglio printing processes, no prospective designs have been released to the public.

The USDebtClock has recently included some suggestions in their secret messages regarding what they think a gold-backed sound money currency design might look like.

Much of the official information comes from court filings, reported by Coin World, that are part of an ongoing lawsuit against the Bureau from Women On 20s, an advocacy group for the visual impaired.

A scant amount of information can be gleamed from some of the Annual Reports issued by the Bureau

Recently, in the 2024 Federal Reserve Note Print Order includes a note indicating the need to allocate resources to achieve to meet the 2026 issuance of the new Catalyst $10 bill. With production of the new currency note expected to begin in 2025. The same notes related to resource allocation was also included in the 2023 Print Order.

The selection of the $10 note for redesign was determined by the Advanced Counterfeit Deterrence (ACD) Steering Committee, which is comprised of stakeholders from Treasury, BEP, the Federal Reserve Board, the Federal Reserve System and the U.S. Secret Service.

iBill Currency Reader

The new $10 bill will include new tactile features for improved usability for the blind and visually impaired. This is in addition to other features such as larger, high-contract numerals, new currency readers and mobile applications.

New $10 Bill Design

It has been ten years since this project was first announced, and so far, no prospective designs have been released to the public.

In 2017, the Bureau of Engraving and Printing released an updated on the Catalyst $10 project in the Chief Financial Officers Performance and Accountability Report.

“…the first note of the family of notes, currently known as the Catalyst $10, entered the BDP concept phase while the test note completed the BDP development phase. Family design activities, Project Salt, commenced by defining low-fidelity and exploring Catalyst family sub-themes based on the overarching Democracy theme.”

The BDP is an acronym for the Banknote Development Process, which is part of the Technology Development Process (TDP), which is responsible for governing research, development and maturation of security and other features to be incorporated into new currency designs.

In 2021, the Annual Financial Report from the BEP included a brief status update on Project Catalyst, indicating that work had already complete on a Pilot of a new design:

“to include two new public security features, …a raised tactile feature, a low vision feature to support individuals with visual impairments, and a new face portrait and back vignette.”

The BEP reportedly has begun feasibility trials using the intaglio printing process to apply the new Raised Tactile Feel (RTF). These machines are capable of printing currency notes at speeds of up to 10,000 sheets per hour, with 32 or 50 notes per sheet.

So far, the project duration without any public preview of prospective designs, along with the litany of three letter acronyms, are both indicators that one or more large teams of consultants are involved in the project, with taxpayers footing the bill for hundreds per hour for each consultant.

Although the prospective designs remain secret, the release schedule for a new $10 bill is expected in 2026, with the $50 bill following in 2028 and the $20 bill in 2030. Further down the line, a new $5 is expected before 2035. A redesigned $100 note is expected before 2038. With no plans for a redesign of the $1 or $2 notes, it’s highly likely that those will be replaced with $ 1 and $2 coins.

US Government Debt now over $33.88 Trillion, USDebtClock.org

FindBullionPrices.com

Earlier this year, the US Government hit a new milestone. The amount of government debt in the United States has grown to exceed $33.88 Trillion as a result of overspending by elected officials. The growing U.S. government debt is a complex issue with significant implications for American citizens and taxpayers.

This is a significant issue effecting all American taxpayers, whether they realize it or not.

A higher national debt leads to higher taxes in the future. As the government needs to bring in more revenue to service its debt. This leads directly to increasing taxes, pushing the financial burden on citizens and businesses.

A significant portion of the government’s budget goes towards interest payments on the debt. These payments consume resources that could otherwise be used for public services, infrastructure, education, or healthcare.

To manage high levels of debt, the government has resorted to printing more money in recent years, which has directly caused the inflation that we feel today. Inflation diminishes our purchasing power, causing dramatic increase in everyday living costs.

High debt levels also hamper economic growth. Increased government borrowing leads to higher interest rates, making it more expensive for consumers and businesses to borrow and invest, potentially slowing down economic activities.

US Debt Clock

As more of the government’s budget is allocated to servicing the debt, there is less money available for other spending priorities like social security, welfare programs, infrastructure, and education.

A heavily indebted nation finds its global economic and political influence quickly diminishing. This has been happening throughout the world, as many nations join the BRICS initiative, moving towards a universal gold-backed currency and away from the dollar for international trade and oil. The US is likely to face additional constraints for defense funding, compromising national security measures.

Escalating debt also affects investor confidence. Many already see the debt as unsustainable, which has led to increased yields on government bonds, further exacerbating the debt problem.

Despite all the efforts to stimulate the economy during the last few years, the financial stability of the country has been on a downward trajectory, according to leading economists. High debt levels make the country more vulnerable to financial crises and recession. The Federal Reserve continues the struggle to reach the goal of sub-2% inflation target, while repeatedly raising interested rates to levels not seen in decades. The government’s ability to stimulate the economy through additional spending is limited if it’s already heavily indebted.

Younger generations today are already limited in their ability to buy a house, caused by a combination of the housing bubble and high interest rates. Future generations will shoulder the additional burden with the responsibility of paying off the debt incurred today.

A significant portion of U.S. debt is held by foreign entities. This dependence creates complex international dynamics and potential vulnerabilities, particularly as geopolitical relationships shift.

What is the Federal Reserve?

FindBullionPrices.com

The Federal Reserve is part public entity and part private entity that has operated as the central banking system of the United States since the Federal Reserve Act of 1913.

The Federal Reserve System, often referred to simply as the Fed has a unique public-private structure that controls the nation’s monetary policy by managing interest rates and regulating the money supply to achieve goals like maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.

The first, the Board of Governors, based in Washington, DC, is a government agency with various accountabilities to the President and Congress.

The six member Board of Governors plays a crucial role in setting national monetary policy by controlling interest rates.

The second component of the Fed is the 12 regional banks located in major cities across the United States. These banks are responsible for supervising and regulating regional member banks, implementing the monetary policy set by the FOMC, and provide financial services to depository institutions and the federal government.

The third component is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) which plays a critical role on monetary policy, primarily interest rates. The committee includes the Board of Governors and the presidents of the regional Federal Reserve Banks.

Who owns the Federal Reserve?

The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System is a federal agency. The members, including the Chair, are appointed by the President of the United States and confirmed by the Senate. This aspect of the Fed is fully public and operates under the purview of the federal government.

However, the regional banks are organized much like private corporations. Member banks in each region own stock in their regional Fed Bank. For example, the St Louis Fed is owned by each of the member banks that it is responsible for overseeing. Each bank holds stock in the St. Louis Reserve Bank.

The member banks that hold stock in the St. Louis Fed do receive a fixed 6% dividend annually, but they do not have the same control and financial benefits that shareholders in private corporations possess. They cannot sell or trade their stock, and they do not have voting rights to control the bank’s policies or operations. Owning this stock is more like being a member of an organization rather than owning a company in the traditional sense.

Any profits that may be generated by each of the Fed Reserve Banks, after operational costs and dividends to member banks, are returned to the U.S. Treasury, aligning with the public aspect of the Federal Reserve System.

Origins of the Federal Reserve

Prior to the creation of the Fed, the U.S. had gone through long periods without a central bank. During the late 19th and early 20th centuries the banking system was fragmented and prone to crises, including the notable of Panic of 1907.

In November 1910, a group of wealthy bankers, along with several notable politicians, met in secret on Jekyll Island, off the coast of Georgia. While shrouded in mystery, this secret meeting has been considered pivotal to the creation of the Federal Reserve.

Some of the prominent figures in attendance at this secret conference included:

  1. Senator Nelson W. Aldrich: As the Senate Finance Committee Chairman, he was a key figure in U.S. financial circles.
  2. Henry P. Davison: A senior partner at J.P. Morgan & Company.
  3. Charles D. Norton: President of the First National Bank of New York.
  4. Benjamin Strong: Head of J.P. Morgan’s Bankers Trust Company and later the first Governor of the New York Fed.
  5. Frank A. Vanderlip: President of the National City Bank of New York.
  6. Paul M. Warburg: A partner in Kuhn, Loeb & Company and a member of a prominent banking family.

The purpose of the meeting was to discuss and formulate a plan and a strategy for a central banking system that would be acceptable to both Wall Street and Washington. The attendees were aware of the public’s distrust of centralized financial power and Wall Street, hence the need for secrecy.

The framework for the foundation of the Aldrich Plan was laid at Jekyll Island. This plan called for the establishment of a National Reserve Association with multiple branches, which would serve as a central bank and have significant control over the nation’s banking system.

While the Aldrich Plan was initially met with resistance, especially from those wary of Wall Street’s influence, it laid the groundwork for what would eventually become the Federal Reserve Act. The final form of the Act, passed in 1913, differed in several ways from the Aldrich Plan, particularly in its structure of multiple regional Federal Reserve Banks to decentralize power.

The Federal Reserve Act established the Federal Reserve System as the central bank of the United States, with the dual mandate of maximizing employment and stabilizing prices. The Act sought to balance public and private interests, establish financial stability, and prevent future banking crises.

The Countries with the Largest Gold Reserves

FindBullionPrices.com

Gold is considered a crucial element in diversifying a central bank’s foreign reserves because it bears little correlation with other assets, such as currencies and bonds. In times of market volatility, gold prices often move inversely to paper investments, providing balance to the portfolio.

As we’ve seen with the dollar, paper currency is subject to depreciation and inflation, while gold has maintained its value over the long term.

Top 5 Countries by Central Bank Gold Reserves

While many are monitoring the developments in BRICS, the United States continues to hold the largest stockpile of gold reserves in the world by a considerable margin.

In fact, the U.S. Treasury has almost as many reserves as the next three largest gold-holding countries combined, which are Germany, Italy and France. Russia rounds out the top five.

  1. United States – The US Treasury reports data about its gold holdings on a monthly basis which also includes how much gold is stored across various vault locations. According to the most recent Treasury data, roughly 147,341,858.382 fine troy ounces is in deep storage at the Fort Knox Bullion Depository, 54,067,331.379 troy ounces are held in vaults at West Point, 43,853,707.279 troy ounces in Denver, another 13,376,987.724 held in custody of the Federal Reserve in New York, plus an addition 2,783,218.656 in gold coins that is considered “working stock” that is spread across various locations. This amounts to 261423103.42 troy ounces, roughly 7411220.3158 kilograms. In terms of tonnage, the US holds roughly 7,411.22 tonnes of gold.
  2. Germany – Germany’s central bank, the Bundesbank, is integral to both the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) and the Eurosystem, which sets monetary policy for the Eurozone. Germany holds 3352.65 Tonnes of gold as of the third quarter of 2023.
  3. Italy – Headquartered in Rome, the Banca d’Italia is also part of the European System of Central Banks. The Bank of Italy’s main tasks today include maintaining financial stability, overseeing the banking system, managing the country’s gold and foreign reserves and contribute to the Eurosystem’s monetary policy. Italy holds 2452 tonnes of gold.
  4. France – Banque de France was established in 1800 by Napoleon Bonaparte. Today, it is also part of the ECB, but still maintains supervisory control over the French banking sector, maintaining financial stability, and providing various financial services, including managing the country’s gold and currency reserves. France holds 2437 tonnes of gold.
  5. Russia –  Central Bank of the Russian Federation has a wide variety of responsibilities with regard to managing monetary policy, and managing Russia’s foreign exchange reserves along with the national gold reserves. Russia holds 2333 tonnes of gold.
  6. China – The People’s Bank of China has been around since 1948 and is responsible for formulating and implementing monetary policy, maintaining financial stability, issuing the Renminbi (RMB) and managing the countries foreign currency and gold reserves. China holds 2192 tonnes of gold.

Central Banks Continue Buying Gold

FindBullionPrices.com

China has continued its pursuit of gold buying strategy throughout the year. As more agreements enter into local currency trading, other central banks are adding Yuen to their holdings in exchange for gold, helping the Chinese Central Bank add to their vaults.

Central banks buy and hold gold for several reasons, which continue to evolve between BRICS countries. In general, Central banks hold gold to preserve the value of their fiat currency reserves, which historically loses value due to inflation and other government policies.

China extended its streak of expanding gold reserves to a 10th consecutive month in August while the country’s total foreign exchange reserves declined amid falling prices of global financial assets.

The central bank added about 930,000 troy ounces of gold into its reserves last month, increasing its holdings to 69.62 million ounces (2,165 tons), according to data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE). Since November, China has added a total of 5.95 million ounces of the precious metal to its hoard.

Gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset during times of economic or financial crisis. Central banks may buy gold to add to their holdings during such periods to provide stability to their financial systems and fiat currencies.

Gold is a universally recognized and accepted form of payment.

What is Fiat Money?

FindBullionPrices.com
dedollarization and the introduction of a BRICS basket currency

Fiat currency, also known as fiat money, is a type of currency that is declared by a government to be legal tender and is accepted as a medium of exchange within a specific country or region.

Unlike commodity money, which has intrinsic value because it is backed by gold or silver coin, fiat currency has no inherent value and is not backed by a physical commodity.

Instead, its value is established and maintained by government decree and the trust and confidence of the people who use it.

Modern currencies, including the US Dollar, European Euro and the British Pound, are all examples of fiat currencies.

The United States began transitioning away from the gold-standard during the first half of the 20th century. During the Great Depression, the government took the extreme step of confiscating all of the gold coins that were circulating throughout the economy and made it illegal for private citizens to own gold.

Many of the gold coins were melted into large format gold bars and were moved to the Gold Depository at Fort Knox, where they remain sealed away to this day.

In the case of the dollar, its value is established and maintained through the authority and credibility of the Federal Reserve. It’s essentially a social agreement that people will accept the currency in exchange for goods and services.

Commodity Backed Money

Fiat currency has no inherent value as it is not backed by a physical commodity. Commodity backed money, which is backed by gold, silver or other commodities, has value due to its intrinsic properties.

The Treasury and Federal Reserve have the authority to control the supply of dollars. They can print more money or remove it from circulation, which can influence factors like inflation and deflation.

The regulators at the Fed and Treasury Department have a few monetary policy tools at their disposal to manage the economy. This includes adjusting interest rates, implementing quantitative easing, and regulating the money supply to influence economic conditions.

One of the major concerns with fiat money is the potential for inflation. Since fiat money is not backed by gold or silver, governments and central banks have the authority to print money at will. If the money supply increases faster than the growth of goods and services in the economy, it will lead to inflation, eroding the purchasing power of money and causing prices to rise.

Unlike commodity money like gold or silver, which have intrinsic value, fiat money has no inherent value. Its value is solely based on the trust and confidence that people have in the issuing government. If that trust wanes, the value of fiat currency can be at risk and individuals and everyday workers will continue to see the purchasing power of the dollar diminish over the years. It can impact the ability to save for the future and plan for retirement.

While physical coins and banknotes are common forms of fiat currency, many of today’s transactions are conducted digitally using electronic forms of money, such as online banking, credit cards, and digital wallets.

Fiat Money CBDC

The Federal Reserve and other central banks are pushing for the adoption of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), which will allow the government to control how you spend your money, and what you will be allowed to purchase.

While this can be used to manage the economy, it also means that economic decisions are concentrated in the hands of a few, which will lead to potential abuse or mismanagement.

CBDC transactions can be easily tracked and monitored by the central bank and government authorities, raising significant concerns about individuals’ financial privacy and the potential for government surveillance.

The digital nature of CBDCs also makes them vulnerable to cyberattacks and hacking attempts. A successful breach could lead to the theft of funds or disruption of the financial system.

The introduction of CBDCs will continue to disrupt traditional banking and payment systems, affecting financial institutions and fintech companies.

CBDC allows central banks to have more direct control over monetary policy and money supply. Fiat currency is influenced by central bank policy but also impacted by commercial banks and economic factors.

The introduction of CBDC requires additional technological infrastructure and regulatory frameworks for digital payments and security. Earlier this year, the Federal Reserve introduced the FedNow payment gateway system, requiring commercial banks to adopt this new payment system is part of the long-term launch plan.

Florida and Indiana Ban Use of CBDC

FindBullionPrices.com

Both Florida and Indiana have recently passed laws banning the use of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) as money in those states.

These laws explicitly exclude a CBDC from the definition of money in Florida and Indiana, effectively banning its use as such in these states.

The Florida law defines central bank digital currency as a “digital medium of exchange, or digital monetary unit of account issued by the United States Federal Reserve System, a federal agency, a foreign government, a foreign central bank, or a foreign reserve system that is made directly available to a consumer by such entities” and that is “processed or validated directly by such entities.”

In the law, central bank digital currency is specifically excluded from the definition of money under the Florida Uniform Commercial Code (UCC) which regulates commerce in the state.

The provisions in the new Indiana law are similar, but the bill took a very different path to enactment.

Texas Committee Passes Bill To Create 100% Gold And Silver-Backed Transactional Currencies

FindBullionPrices.com

Legislators in Texas are leading the charge against the Federal Reserve’s monopoly on fiat money by offering an option for people to conduct business in sound money. The principal idea reverses Gresham’s Law, where good money drives bad money out of circulation and the people can choose to decline to accept less valuable fiat money from the Fed.

The bill has the bipartisan support of 42 sponsors to create a viable gold-backed alternative to a central bank digital currency (CBDC) already in development by the Federal Reserve. 

If the bill becomes law, it would require the state comptroller to establish and provide for :

  • The issuance of gold and silver specie – A specie is a physical coin or token, typically made from a precious metal that is suitable for or customarily used as currency.
  • Require the comptroller to authorize the Texas Bullion Depository as issuer of the specie as legal tender in payment of debt and readily transfer the specie to another person
  • A mechanism to use 100% backed gold and silver digital currencies in everyday transactions
    • Use the digital currency as legal tender in payment of debt.
    • By electronic means readily transfer or assign the digital currency to another person.

Physical gold and silver backing the digital currency would be stored in a pooled account at the Texas State Bullion Depository.

Federal lawmakers from Texas are also leading the charge against the Federal Reserve issuing a consumer CBDC. In March, Senator Ted Cruz introduced legislation specifically aimed at preventing the Fed from establishing a central bank digital currency.

Federal Reserve and the Current Board of Governors

FindBullionPrices.com

The Federal Reserve system is comprised of 12 Reserve Banks that were established following the outbreak of World War I in 1914.

Each of the twelve national reserve bank regions were chosen following a Congress sponsored selection committee called the Reserve Bank Organizational Committee.

After the districts were defined, each of the Federal Reserve Bank’s self organized amongst the regional banks, with local banks all contributing to the initial reserves from customer deposits.

The Board of Governors, appointed by the President of the United States is responsible for supervision of reserve banks and regulating certain financial institutions and activities.

The first President of the New York Fed was Benjamin Strong Jr. who had been persuaded by JP Morgan to take the job.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is also the exclusive fiscal agent of the US Treasury and is responsible for managing government debt by raising money through auctions of marketable Treasury securities (bonds) and through authorized government buybacks. It is also the holder of the General Account for the Treasury, where the Federal Government receives all direct revenue and pays nearly all federal expenses.

It also handles exchange rate management, swapping dollars with foreign currencies under the Treasury’s direction.

The Bank of New York owns and operates a bullion depository vault that is built on bedrock some eighty feet below the streets of Manhattan. As of 2019, the bullion depository held roughly 5,100 metric tons of gold, the large majority being held as the custodian of the reserves of thirty-six central banks.

Current Board of Governors

  • Jerome H. Powell, Chair – Powell was nominated by Donald Trump to serve as the chair of the Federal Reserve, replacing current Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen at the helm of the central bank.
  • Michael S. Barr, Vice Chair for Supervision – Barr was nominated by Joe Biden and confirmed by the Senate in 2022.
  • Michelle W. Bowman – In 2018, Bowman was nominated by Trump and approved by the Senate to serve a 14-year term on the Board of Governors, occupying the seat that represents community banks.
  • Lisa D. Cook – Cook is a Biden nominee that began serving on the Board in May 2022.
  • Philip N. Jefferson – Jefferson is a Biden nominee that began serving on the Board in May 2022.
  • Christopher J. Waller – Waller was nominated by Trump and received the approval of Congress in 2019.