May 11, 2025
Gold prices continued their historic ascent this week, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, persistent geopolitical uncertainty, and bullish sentiment from both institutional analysts and central banks. While U.S. retail demand remains tepid, global appetite for gold—especially in Asia and among sovereign institutions—continues to grow, setting the stage for further upside.
Key Takeaways
- Gold remains buoyed by macro headwinds, sovereign demand, and growing distrust in fiat systems.
- U.S. investors are notably lagging global trends, creating a potential opportunity for late-stage repositioning.
- Silver is positioned for a possible breakout, especially as the gold/silver ratio tests extreme levels.
- Institutional voices—from JPMorgan to Gundlach—are now openly projecting gold prices far above current records.
Gold Prices Edge Higher on Trade Hopes and Dollar Weakness
Gold prices rose late in the week as the dollar softened ahead of renewed U.S.-China trade talks. Reuters reported that easing tensions and a modest rebound in oil prices (up over 1%) have stoked safe-haven demand for the yellow metal. While U.S.-UK trade negotiations initially weighed on gold, attention has shifted to Sino-American diplomacy and its impact on global inflation and currency stability.
JPMorgan Predicts $6,000 Gold Price if Capital Rotates Away from U.S. Assets
In a bold research note, JPMorgan analysts said gold could surge to $6,000 per ounce—an 80% increase—if investors meaningfully diversify away from U.S. Treasuries and equities. The argument hinges on growing global concerns around U.S. fiscal dominance, de-dollarization, and geopolitical overreach. This echoes sentiments shared by DoubleLine’s Jeff Gundlach, who sees another 20% rally ahead driven by tariffs, supply chain instability, and monetary policy uncertainty.
Lead into Gold? CERN Physicists Make Modern Alchemy Real
In a surprising scientific development, researchers at CERN’s Large Hadron Collider announced this week that they had succeeded in converting lead atoms into trace amounts of gold through high-energy collisions. While the process is prohibitively expensive and purely academic, the announcement caught the public imagination—and served as a reminder that, for now, real gold remains scarce, costly, and irreplaceable.
Demand Divergence: East Buys Gold While U.S. Investors Pull Back
GoldSeek reported that while Q1 global gold bar and coin demand rose sharply—especially in China and the Middle East—U.S. demand has actually declined. Analysts blame this divergence on a mix of investor complacency, overreliance on digital assets and ETFs, and fading memory of the 2020 supply chain crunch. The World Gold Council’s recent figures confirm robust buying outside the U.S., even as domestic retail sales slump.
Fed Signals Patience as Economic Outlook Wavers
Federal Reserve officials reaffirmed their cautious policy stance, citing inflation volatility, sluggish growth, and global financial imbalances. This dovish tone continues to support gold prices, as real yields remain suppressed and investors seek alternatives to bonds amid increasing stagflation risk.
A recent GoldSeek editorial argues that markets remain caught between “stagflation and deflation,” both of which historically favor gold accumulation.
Silver’s Opportunity: Ratio Hits 103:1 as Bulls Eye a Catch-Up
Silver prices remain underwhelming compared to gold, despite record-breaking highs in the latter. The gold/silver ratio sits above 103:1—a level considered historically extreme and unsustainable. As SilverSeek points out, silver tends to lag gold early in a bull cycle, only to outperform later. With gold’s meteoric rise now well underway, many analysts see silver’s moment approaching.
Retail premiums on silver remain moderate, and investor sentiment suggests a rotation may soon begin. Gundlach and other analysts believe silver offers “asymmetric upside” for investors priced out of full-ounce gold coins.
Central Banks and the De-Dollarization Imperative
Money Metals reports that central banks, especially those in China, Turkey, and emerging Asia, continue to be net buyers of gold, motivated by concerns about U.S. sanctions, dollar weaponization, and monetary stability. This institutional demand forms the backbone of the current bull run and has helped gold decouple from traditional risk-on/risk-off cycles.
The strategic shift toward hard assets as monetary anchors—especially amid growing discussions of CBDCs—underscores gold’s role as a sovereign-grade store of value.
Scrap Gold Prices and the Retail Disconnect
Retail sellers are increasingly curious about scrap gold prices, spurred by record spot prices. However, analysts caution that many individuals cashing in jewelry or heirlooms may miss out on further upside, particularly if current price levels become the new floor rather than a peak.
Other Headlines
- A group of hikers stumbled upon over $300,000 worth of gold, believed to be part of an old World War II stash.
- Silver’s short position increased marginally, per CFTC data—suggesting continued institutional hedging, but no aggressive shorting.
- Commentary from SilverSeek criticizes the role of the U.S. government and its historical manipulation of metals markets, arguing that silver remains systemically undervalued.
As always, the question remains not if but when sentiment will catch up to fundamentals. For long-term investors in physical gold and silver, the case remains strong—and the window for accumulation may not stay open forever.
