Despite a backdrop of global instability, rising inflation fears, central bank stockpiling, and multiple U.S. states adopting gold and silver as legal tender, soaring gold prices have led to a drop in U.S. Mint bullion sales significantly in 2025.
This counterintuitive market trend suggests a deeper disconnect between macroeconomic catalysts and retail investor sentiment. Let’s take a deeper dive into year-over-year sales data from 2022 to 2025 and explore core factors contributing to this decline.
Key Highlights
- Gold bullion sales dropped 79% from Q1 2023 to Q1 2025.
- Silver bullion sales declined 34% from Q1 2024 to Q1 2025.
- 2025 gold prices surged above $3,300/oz, yet U.S. Mint sales lag.
- Retail spreads have tightened, reducing dealer profit margins.
- Global geopolitical tension and U.S. dollar volatility continue to rise.
- Central banks continue record gold buying, but retail interest has cooled.
Year-over-Year Q1 Bullion Sales (U.S. Mint)
Gold Bullion (in troy ounces)
| Year | Q1 Sales (oz) |
|---|---|
| 2022 | 426,500 |
| 2023 | 435,500 |
| 2024 | 285,500 |
| 2025 | 91,000 |
Silver Bullion (in troy ounces)
| Year | Q1 Sales (oz) |
|---|---|
| 2022 | 7,581,000 |
| 2023 | 11,911,500 |
| 2024 | 8,280,000 |
| 2025 | 5,462,000 |
Surging Gold Bullion Prices Driven By Central Bank Buying
As of May 10, 2025, gold is trading at $3,325.39 per troy ounce, up over 80% from the same date in 2022. This surge has been driven by:
- Relentless central bank accumulation, with nations like China and Russia diversifying away from the U.S. dollar.
- Geopolitical uncertainty (ongoing Middle East conflicts, NATO posture in Eastern Europe, escalating India-Pakistan tensions).
- Massive distrust in fiat, fueled by inflation, ballooning debt, and de-dollarization efforts.
- Trump’s second-term agenda, including an audit of Fort Knox and renewed focus on U.S. gold reserves.
Yet retail bullion demand has not kept pace with these bullish signals.
Macroeconomic Friction Points
Despite this favorable environment for precious metals, retail bullion sales are falling, even as conditions echo past crises:
1. Tariff Shock and the U.S.-China Trade War
President Trump’s aggressive tariff regime, targeting China and North American partners, is inflaming trade uncertainty. Markets are pricing in further inflation and supply chain constraints.
2. Dollar Weakness vs. Gold Strength
The U.S. dollar has weakened sharply on a trade-weighted basis, yet bullion sales remain soft. This suggests investor complacency or preference for paper derivatives (ETFs, mining stocks).
3. Stock Market Pullback and Layoffs
Recent S&P 500 losses of over 8% YTD have shaken investor confidence. Meanwhile, layoffs continue across federal agencies (DOGE audits) and tech firms like Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet. Despite this, many investors are still sidelined, holding cash or seeking liquidity.
4. Retail Spread Compression
According to wholesale data from UpstateCoins:
- Silver Eagle premiums have fallen from +$12.15 (May 2022) to +$3.45 (May 2025).
- Gold Eagle spreads are near 3.00%, similar to 2022, but with tighter bid-ask margins.
Even with this margin compression, dealer incentives like the Silver at Spot deals remain available and inventory depth is wide.
The State-Level Gold Bullion Movement
A growing number of U.S. states—including Texas, Utah, Missouri, Arkansas, and Louisiana—are passing laws to make gold and silver legal tender. Some states are:
- Removing sales taxes on bullion: More than 40 states have now exempted precious metals from state sales tax. States like Mississippi and Ohio have recently joined this trend.
- Building state bullion depositories: Texas operates a state-run depository, and Tennessee has passed legislation to study its own version.
- Proposing payment of state taxes or salaries in gold/silver: Utah, Missouri, and South Carolina are considering legislation that would allow public employees or vendors to receive payments in precious metals.
Utah’s Gold-Backed Payment Platform
In early 2025, the Utah Legislature passed HB 306, authorizing the creation of a competitive procurement process for a precious metals-backed electronic payment platform. This would:
- Enable state vendors to be paid in gold and silver.
- Require that assets be physically stored in Utah and subject to regular audits.
- Offer real-time, dollar-to-metal conversion via electronic infrastructure.
This marks a substantial leap forward in treating gold and silver not just as static stores of value, but as functional money in everyday commerce.
Former Fed Vice Chair Randal Quarles and former Citigroup CFO Gary Crittenden were part of the bipartisan workgroup endorsing the plan. Crittenden called it a vital step in modernizing monetary alternatives and restoring confidence in value retention.
The Case for Fractional Gold and Silver Bullion in a High-Price Environment
As gold prices push above $3,300/oz, smaller denomination coins like 1/10 oz and 1/4 oz Gold Eagles, Britannias, and Maple Leafs are gaining appeal among retail investors. These fractional coins offer:
- Affordability and liquidity, especially in volatile markets.
- Incremental purchasing strategies for dollar-cost averaging.
- Practical barter and portability advantages in uncertain times.
For silver, with spot now at $32.73/oz, the gold/silver ratio is approximately 101:1—historically high. This creates two major opportunities:
- Gold-to-silver ratio trading: Investors can accumulate silver now and convert to gold when the ratio compresses to historic norms (e.g., 60:1 or lower).
- Late-cycle leverage: In the 2008–2011 crisis period, silver lagged gold initially, then surged dramatically as the bull market matured. Current patterns suggest a similar delayed response may occur.
These strategic perspectives are often overlooked by mainstream investors but are well-established within precious metals circles.
Psychological and Structural Disconnects
Several factors may explain why retail investors are not flooding into physical bullion:
- Distrust in physical delivery logistics, after high-profile thefts, empty packages, and weak mint allocations.
- Shift toward digital gold or tokenized metals via ETFs and crypto platforms.
- Lack of education and urgency, even with gold headlines dominating financial media.
- Buy-the-dip mentality in equities still prevailing among younger investors.
What Will Trigger a Retail Gold & Silver Bull Market?
We may be in a calm before a storm. Possible black swan catalysts include:
- A major sovereign debt default.
- Collapse of a major bank or currency regime (e.g., dollar or yuan crisis).
- A military flashpoint involving a nuclear state.
- A central bank gold audit scandal.
- Wider adoption of CBDCs prompting backlash into hard assets.
The last major catalyst was the COVID-19 pandemic and resulting lockdowns, which disrupted mining, mint operations, and global supply chains. This triggered a massive spike in premiums and created widespread bullion shortages. While current dealer premiums are at a record low, any of these events or another logistical or geopolitical shocks could once again catalyze the market.
What’s Next for Investors
In the face of rising gold prices, widespread economic instability, and a surge in macroeconomic warning signs, bullion sales have paradoxically fallen.
While the institutional side is heavily accumulating physical gold, retail investors appear distracted or hesitant. However, with structural shifts underway—state gold adoption, Fed audits, and monetary disillusionment—the foundation is forming for a retail resurgence. The only question is: What will be the spark?
Now may be the time for investors to re-evaluate their portfolio resilience and take physical ownership of real assets before sentiment catches up to reality.
