Week of July 10-16, 2026. Prices as of Thursday close. Last PMW issue: June 19.
Gold and Silver This Week
Gold opened the week near $4,104 and spent five sessions grinding lower, closing Thursday at roughly $3,998. That puts gold below $4,000 for the first time since late June and roughly 27% below its January all-time high near $5,500. The weekly decline was about 2.5%.
Silver fell harder. Spot dropped from around $58.55 on Monday to $56.32 by Thursday close, a weekly decline of roughly 4%. The gold-silver ratio pushed back toward 71:1, well above the long-run average near 60, reflecting the market’s tendency to punish silver’s industrial side whenever rate-hike fears pick up.
Platinum slid to $1,619, down nearly 10% over the past month despite a fourth consecutive year of projected supply deficits from constrained South African mining. Palladium dropped to $1,256 as the EV transition continues to erode catalytic converter demand and automakers swap in cheaper platinum.
Track live precious metals prices →
Iran, Oil, and the Inflation Trade That Won’t Die
The dominant macro story this week was the military escalation between the United States and Iran. Multiple rounds of CENTCOM airstrikes hit Iranian targets, and Iran retaliated with missiles that struck two UAE-flagged tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, killing one crew member. Brent crude surged past $84 and WTI pushed above $79 by Thursday close, both at their highest levels since the Iran deal collapsed in May.
For metals, the logic ran through inflation expectations rather than safe-haven flows. Higher oil means stickier energy costs, which means the Fed stays hawkish longer, which means a stronger dollar, which pressures gold and silver priced in dollars. The safe-haven bid that normally supports gold during geopolitical stress was outweighed by the rate-hike math. That dynamic has defined this market for months: the old playbook where war equals higher gold only works if the Fed is cutting, and this Fed is not cutting.
CPI Came in Soft. The Fed Didn’t Blink.
Monday’s June CPI report was the week’s other catalyst, and for a few hours, it looked like a gift for metals. Headline CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month, with the annual rate dropping to 3.5%. Core CPI was flat in June and just 2.6% year-over-year. The energy index slumped 5.7% for the month, the largest single-month decline since April 2020.
Gold and silver both popped on the release. Then the Iran headlines hit, oil reversed the energy deflation that had produced the soft CPI print, and the metals gave the move back.
The June FOMC minutes, released the same week, showed a 9-to-8 split among members, with nine favoring at least one more hike and eight favoring hold. Markets are pricing roughly a 20% chance of a hike at the July 28-29 meeting and about 60% odds of at least one hike by September. With rates at 4.25-4.50% and a hawkish chair in Kevin Warsh who has already stripped forward guidance from the statement, the policy backdrop remains hostile for metals. The soft CPI bought gold a few hours. The oil spike took it back.
Shanghai Silver Premium Widens to 12%
One of the most persistent signals in the silver market right now is the gap between where silver trades in Shanghai and where it trades on COMEX. As of Thursday, silver on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was carrying a premium of 11.5-12.5% over Western spot, up from the 8% level we flagged in June.
Three forces are driving the widening. First, China’s July 1 strategic-mineral export controls now cover silver, requiring export licenses that have slowed outbound shipments. Second, PBOC import quotas are constraining inbound supply. Third, domestic industrial demand from solar panel manufacturing remains strong. China produces more than 80% of the world’s solar panels, and solar alone accounts for roughly a fifth of annual global silver consumption.
You can track the Shanghai-COMEX spread in real time in our spot charts hub. The spread has been a useful leading indicator for physical tightness all year. When paper COMEX prices fall but Shanghai premiums hold or widen, it tells you that the physical market is tighter than the futures screen suggests.
On the COMEX side, registered silver inventories stood at 94.9 million ounces as of July 13, up from the 82 million low in mid-June but still well below the 150 million ounce levels from a year ago. The registered-to-eligible ratio remains thin.
Central Banks Keep Buying: PBOC Adds Gold for the 20th Straight Month
China’s central bank added 14.93 tonnes of gold to its reserves in June, marking the 20th consecutive month of accumulation and the largest single-month purchase since 2023. Poland leads all central banks in 2026 purchases so far at 64 tonnes year-to-date.
This is the structural story that keeps running underneath the weekly noise. The World Gold Council’s 2026 survey, released last month, found that 89% of central bankers expect global gold reserves to keep rising, and 74% expect the dollar’s share of global reserves to shrink within five years. Central banks have averaged roughly 1,000 tonnes of annual gold purchases over the past four years, double the prior decade’s pace.
The official-sector bid does not trade the CPI print or the oil spike. It is the floor under the price even in weeks when the price falls, and it is the reason gold held near $4,000 all week despite a hawkish Fed and rising oil prices.
Bessent Confirms Fort Knox Gold, Unveils Trump Coin
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made headlines Tuesday night and Wednesday with a pair of announcements. During a Fox News interview with Jesse Watters, Bessent confirmed that the gold in Fort Knox is “all present and accounted for,” worth “over $1 trillion at current market value.” He also confirmed he has never personally visited the depository.
Separately, Bessent announced that the U.S. Mint will begin striking a $1 Semiquincentennial coin featuring President Trump, the first time a living president has appeared on U.S. coinage since Calvin Coolidge in 1926. For bullion buyers, the key distinction: the coin is manganese-brass clad, not gold. The “gold” in the announcement refers to color, not metal content.
We covered the Fort Knox story in depth this week, including the $42.22 book value problem, the 52-year audit gap, and what it means for gold buyers. Read the full piece: Fort Knox Gold: Bessent Says It’s All There. He Hasn’t Checked.
Tariff Watch: Canada at 35%?
President Trump threatened Canada with a 35% tariff effective August 1, announced on July 10. The existing tariff structure already places 50% duties on articles made of steel, aluminum, and copper, with 25% on derivative products. Canada is the largest single source of U.S. aluminum imports and a top-five supplier of gold, silver, and platinum group metals. If the 35% rate takes effect, expect dealer cost pressures on Canadian-sourced products, including Silver Maple Leafs and Gold Maple Leafs, within weeks.
US Mint: Enhanced Uncirculated Silver Eagle Drops July 21
The Mint’s 2026-W Enhanced Uncirculated Silver Eagle goes on sale Monday, July 21, priced at $169 with a mintage cap of 125,000. If the Gold Eagle Enhanced Uncirculated is any guide (7,500 coins, sold out in under two minutes earlier this year), demand for the silver version will be heavy.
Meanwhile, the 2026-W Proof Silver Eagle saw a surge of 96,770 coins sold after returning from a four-month unavailability. If you are tracking premiums on Silver Eagles across dealers, the Silver Eagle comparison page now includes historical premium trends so you can see how today’s spreads compare to the past 30, 60, and 90 days. That data is especially useful during weeks like this one, where spot drops but dealer premiums do not always follow at the same pace.
What We’re Watching
Iran is the story that sets the tone for the next two weeks. If the Strait of Hormuz disruption widens, oil pushes past $90, inflation expectations re-anchor above 3.5%, and the July 28-29 FOMC meeting becomes a live hike decision rather than a hold. That is bearish for metals in the short run, even though it is the kind of geopolitical instability that historically supports gold over longer periods.
The Shanghai silver premium is the physical market’s vote. A 12% premium while COMEX spot falls tells you that Chinese industrial buyers are paying up for metal the paper market says is getting cheaper. That tension resolves one of two ways: either the premium collapses as demand softens, or Western spot prices eventually follow Shanghai higher. So far in 2026, Shanghai has been right more often than COMEX.
And the central bank bid continues to set the floor. Twenty straight months of PBOC buying is not a trade. It is a policy decision. That distinction matters when the weekly price action feels like it is going the wrong way.
